India’s carbon market conversation is widening beyond energy and industry. Forests, farms, grasslands, wetlands, mangroves and rice fields are increasingly being viewed as spaces where climate action, ecological restoration and rural livelihoods can converge. Carbon credits are expected to help bring private finance into these landscapes. But the global experience of the voluntary carbon market shows that a project can be registered, verified and even generate credits without necessarily delivering the climate or community outcomes that buyers assume. After evaluating 2,346 carbon-crediting projects and nearly one billion tonnes of issued credits, a 2024 study in Nature Communications estimated that less than 16% of the credits examined, represented real emission reductions. The study does not mean that every carbon project has failed, but it shows how badly results can diverge from claims when baselines, additionality or monitoring are weak. Specific cases make the warning harder to ignore. In 2025, the carbon certifier Verra reviewed Zimbabwe’s Kariba REDD+ project and found that actual deforestation in the reference area was far lower than originally projected. Verra identified 15.22 million excess credits among 26.82 million credits already issued and said these could no longer be corrected through future monitoring periods because the project had withdrawn from its registry. Similarly, in 2024, Verra rejected 37 rice-cultivation projects in China. It sanctioned project proponents and validation bodies and required compensation for overissued credits after concerns were raised about project areas, additionality and emission-reduction calculations. Community governance can be equally decisive. The Northern Kenya Grassland Carbon Project…This article was originally published on Mongabay
