Many medium-sized Indian cities could experience disproportionately higher temperature increases compared to surrounding rural areas, even under a 2°C global warming scenario, the upper limit for warming set under the Paris Agreement. A new study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences analysed 104 cities, with a population between 300,000 and one million across Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas. It found that in 81% of these cities, the annual average land surface temperatures are projected to rise faster than those in surrounding rural areas under the 2°C scenario. Together, the 104 cities analysed are home to more than 50 million people, highlighting the scale of potential exposure. Land surface temperature is not the same as air temperature, but it is closely linked to heat exposure. It often exceeds air temperatures during peak afternoon hours. The study focuses on daytime land surface temperature measured around 1:30 pm using satellite data. The authors note that while surface and air temperatures differ, surface heat strongly influences near-surface air temperatures that people experience. By combining Earth System Model projections with a machine-learning approach trained on satellite data, the researchers identified urban heat changes that coarse-resolution models typically miss. India stands out Within this global pattern, India emerges as a hotspot. The study estimates that Indian cities experience an additional 45% increase in average land surface temperature compared to surrounding rural areas under a 2°C global scenario. The research highlights cities in north India, such as Patiala, where urban warming…This article was originally published on Mongabay
